Monitoring and Early Warning of Violent Conflict in South Sudan Report #2.

Six years of conflict in the country have resulted in over 380,000 deaths, 2.5 million refugees, and nearly 2 million internally displaced people. And despite the signing of a peace agreement in August of last year, episodes of violence continue to strike. On June 19, for example, a woman was killed in her home by gunmen in Dongoro, and in Western Lakes State, revenge killings between the Gony and Thuyic just over a week later left four dead and six wounded. See how this week’s clashes offer predictions for upcoming violence in our latest report.

We believe the ability to predict violence provides critical information for individuals and organizations working to prevent violent conflict before it spreads. These reports mark our foray into statistical modeling of offline violence based on online, open-sourced data.